Medrek
Support Group North America (MSGNA)
May
13, 2010
Ethiopian
Election: Ballots or Bullets? Election Campaign or
Terror Campaign?
In just ten days, the
Ethiopian people will be heading to the polling
stations to cast their votes and in all likelihood
the majority will vote for candidates of the
opposition party, Medrek or Forum. The ruling
party, the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF), chaired by the Prime
Minister, Meles Zenawi, is terrified and trembled
than ever before in the face of Medrek, the voice
of the Ethiopian people.
It is for the first time in
the last two decades that a cohesive and
well-organized coalition of eight parties led by
visionary and dedicated leaders that has really
challenged and confronted the EPRDF. In the 2005
election, the Unity for Democracy and Justice
(UDJ) or Kinijit was a relatively viable
opposition but its non-democratic operations
coupled by very loose organizational network and
inside job saboteurs, made it an easy target to
the more formidable EPRDF. The latter had already
knew about the weaknesses of UDJ and despite the
overwhelming success of Kinijit on the
polls, especially in the urban areas, the ruling
party, by claiming that it had won the rural
areas, snatched the ballots by sheer force. Then
UDJ supporters protested by staging demonstrations
and they were dealt with government bullets and
bayonets.
History may repeat itself in
the May 23, 2010 election. The early warning signs
of intimidation and preemptive strikes á la Meles
Zenawi has already been unleashed, starting with
the murder of Aregawi Gebreyohannes in Tigray and
the recent cold blooded killings of Medrek
supporters in the Oromia regional state. EPRDF’s
police state is manifested in many ways, ranging
from imprisonment of opposition leaders to
harassment and killings of Medrek supporters.
In some instances, the EPRDF
regime, in an attempt to hoodwink the Ethiopian
people and to impress world public opinion,
permits pre-election debates. In the majority of
cases, however, true to its nature, the EPRDF
masquerades in the electoral process and
dispatches its cadres in the rural areas for the
sole purpose of intimidating Medrek candidates and
supporters. This sinister motive of the ruling
party is best exemplified by the intimidating
campaigns of Qudusan Nega and Wedi Ballema (two of
the many Meles’ entourage) in Tigray regional
state and the incessant negative campaigns against
Siye Abraha by TPLF/EPRDF members who are equally
shaken by the magnanimity of the Forum for
Democratic Dialogue (Medrek).
Other EPRDF cadres have been
in the business of recruiting new members through
various means of political graft including
granting land plots, promotion in offices, winning
trade auctions, political appointments, and going
to the best schools. This patronage, although
second nature to the EPRDF since it seized power
in 1991, has been upgraded with full force and
intensity and in the last couple of years and has
been implemented in all regional states from
Tigray to the Amhara and Oromia regions and the
peripheral states of Beni Sangul Gumuz, Afar and
Somalia.
In most instances, the EPRDF
cadres have not hesitated to use brute force
against persons and their property. The message is
clear when the loose EPRDF congeries broke Merara
Guidina’s car: “We will harass you and kill
your supporters!” Ultimately, the ballots would
be rendered meaningless as long as government
bullets kill innocent Medrek supporters. The EPRDF
election campaign, far from being democratic and
civil, is in fact a terror campaign.
If the Ethiopian constitution
is implemented and fair and free elections are
permitted, Medrek would definitely win. The
Ethiopian bicameral parliament is composed of the
House of Peoples Representatives (HPR) and the
House of the Federation (HF) and the purpose of
the election is to fill the seats in both Houses
or elect delegates to both chambers. According to
the Ethiopian [paper] constitution, “each
nation, nationality, and people is represented by
at least one member, with each nation or
nationality represented by one additional
representative per each one million of its
population.” Members of HF, on the other hand,
are elected by Regional Councils and there is not
such thing as direct election. This perhaps is the
Achilles Heel of the Constitution, but even the
HPR elections would be subject to EPRDF’s
emasculation.
The EPRDF’s hypocrisy has
no limits. Now it has mounted cameras on the
polling stations to monitor the election process,
and it has also entered accord with the European
Union (EU) so that the latter observes the
Ethiopian election. The EU, on its part, says,
“it will send a full-fledged observation team
composed of 200 persons.” How is it possible
that these 200 individuals are going to monitor
the elections given the poor infrastructure and
communication systems of Ethiopia and EPRDF’s
malicious intrigue? Addis Ababa and the
surrounding urban areas alone would consume the
observers, and in the remote areas the EPRDF
cadres will either steal or destroy ballots. The
timid local people would not have control over
their destiny; the brave ones would be eliminated
by force; Medrek has no countervailing force to
check government forces and the absentee observers
would not be on the ground to gather first hand
information and report eyewitness accounts.
The Ethiopian Election Board,
a government constituted body, is not expected to
oversee and conduct the election process
impartially. But if all goes well, i.e. against
all odds, the Medrek coalition would win because
1) the eight member parties have effectively
fielded candidates all over Ethiopia, and 2) the
Ethiopian people who have yearned for change for
too long would cast their vote for Medrek. Arena,
for instance, will contest in all 34 districts
(seats) in Tigray and the Southern Peoples will
run for all 125 seats in the Southern Peoples
regional state. By the same token, the Oromo
National Congress and the Oromo Federalist will
try to capture most of the 181 seats in Oromia.
The Somali Federalist will attempt to seize
momentum in winning most of the 52 seats in its
region. Andinet has fielded candidates all over
Ethiopia, including for 9 seats in Tigray; 9 in
Afar; 38 in the Amhara region; 127 in Oromia; 11
in Southern Peoples state; 13 in Somalia regional
state; 2 in Harar; 2 in Dire Dawa; and for all 138
seats in Addis Ababa.
At least 32 million
Ethiopians have registered to vote and some 2200
from all regions are contesting for parliamentary
seats. However, except for the EPRDF candidates
and their impersonating allies, all other
candidates are subject to government terror
campaigns. Some of the opposition supporters have
already been shot and killed and the candidates
may encounter deadly bullets as well. We shall
wait and see till May 23 and we may either make a
sad post-election analysis or celebrate the
victory of Medrek and the Ethiopian people.
Please send all feedback,
including support, information, input, and
criticism to medrek.support@gmail.com
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