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Grandmasters�
Mercenaries and their War on Tigray
Ghelawdewos Araia, PhD
November 23, 2020
The
current war on Tigray is sometimes viewed as a war
between the usurper Abiy regime and the Tigray
People�s Liberation Front (TPLF), but this
perspective distorts the real nature and objective
of the war that was declared and unleashed on
November 4, 2020 by Abiy and his cohorts. The war,
though conducted by Abiy and his Prosperity Party
treasonous officials, some Western powers and Arab
countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) actually have been behind the
curtain of the orchestrated overall conflict that
has been gradually but surely undermining the
Ethiopian nation-state in the last three years;
the foreign actors, in the context of this essay,
are the grandmasters or the movers and shakers
behind the Ethiopian crisis, but their mission and
objectives could not be fulfilled without the
local mercenaries. By local mercenaries, I mean
the Abiy-led government, his entire apparatus, and
his advisers; some of his advisers are former Derg
(the military government, 1974-1991), who, by
declaring Red Terror, consumed Ethiopian
intellectuals and youth; these criminal elements
have returned from their asylum in the United
State and they have been beating the drum of war
against Tigray and even argued the extermination
(genocide) of the people of Tigray; on top of this
advisors, the Ethiopian Satellite Television (ESAT),
headquartered in Washington, anchor self-appointed
journalists have also been inciting war against
Tigray and advocating genocide against Tigrayan
Ethiopian citizens whether they reside in Tigray
or the rest of Ethiopia. It is unfortunate and a
shame that the United States, bastion of
democracy, harbored such warmonger criminals.
The
involvement of the West, including the US,
Britain, France etc. and Arab countries in
Ethiopian affairs is not new. For instance, the US
has been involved not only in the Ethiopian
affairs but also in all-African affairs due to the
Cold War with the old Soviet Union. In this brief
article, however, my interest and focus is on US
involvement beginning the post-WWII era, when the
Allied Forces defeated the Axis Powers in 1941,
the British entered Addis Ababa along the exiled
Emperor Haile Selassie and kicked out the Italians
from both Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the latter
country fell under British administration from
1941to 1951; soon after, in 1943 the US
established an army radio station installation
known as Kagnew Station at Asmara by taking over
the Italian naval radio station known as Radio
Marina.
In
1950, when the fate of Eritrea was being decided
by the United Nations, the US position was to
unite Eritrea with Ethiopia via a federal
arrangement, and the then US Secretary of State,
Foster Dulles, was in favor of Ethiopia
incorporating Eritrea. Ultimately, Eritrea,
following the federation period, was united with
Ethiopia in 1962.
However,
Eritreans who oppose the unification of Eritrea
with Ethiopia initiated guerrilla warfare in 1961,
and during the entire struggle for Eritrean
independence, Arabs, in particular Iraq and Syria
(and one African country, Libya) were heavily
involved by supporting Eritrean guerrillas in
materiel, finance, and diplomacy; by 1991, when
the military government or the Derg was defeated
by the TPLF and its allies (now turned enemies),
the US was again involved in favor of Eritrea, and
as a result Eritrea became officially independent
in 1993. Soon after, however, the newly
independent Eritrean nation waged series of wars
against all its neighbors, including Sudan,
Djibouti, Yemen, and Ethiopia. Apparently, the
policy of Isaias-led Eritrea was to destabilize
the Horn of Africa, and it is the same regime that
has now allied itself with the Abiy-led Ethiopian
government against Tigray, a new war aimed, again,
at destabilizing the entire Horn of Africa region.
Interestingly,
behind the war in Tigray, the grandmasters are
more or less the same, except that Syria and Iraq,
that were devastated during the wars in their
respective regions, are now replaced by Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE); both
countries have handsomely rewarded Isaias for his
participation and cooperation in the Yemen war and
also for facilitating the Eritrean port of Assab
to the Arab forces. Both Isaias and Abiy were also
rewarded with money and fanciful medals, that
perhaps symbolically signify their regional
alliance (the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea
zone). Ahead of this fanfare, the UAE had rewarded
Abiy with more than three hundred million dollars,
which is unaccounted for; in a similar fashion,
the US gave Abiy $39.00 million for elections
alone (an election that never materialized), not
to mention the additional millions of dollars in
financial aid that was rewarded by the US Gov�t
or the World Bank. The grandmasters are good at
taking care of their local or regional partners;
while this kind of quid pro quo political conduct
or behavior is normal in real politic, given the
consequences of war, including a huge toll on the
war front and the untold miserable condition of
the refugees that are now fleeing the war zone,
the latter effect outweighs the interest of the
grandmasters and the ambition of their local
allies. Incidentally, there is no moral imperative
in the grandmasters and local leaders�
partnership, especially when it comes to promoting
their interests; their real politic is raw and
insensitive.
The
above narrative, by and large, reflects the
incredible unholy alliance between the
grandmasters and the local mercenaries, devoid of
ethical values and moral integrity; they have, in
fact, become humans without soul as in
Shwarzenegger movie The Terminator, and this kind
of empty-headed and heartless mercenaries,
however, are dangerous and merciless at murdering
their own people. They have the courage at killing
their own citizens, but �courage� does not
require moral value, and as Susan Sontag once told
us �vicious scoundrels, murderers, and
terrorists could be brave.� The local
mercenaries are also cunningly deceptive, very
much like pathological liars who are artfully
skillful at misleading people. Therefore, it would
not be surprising if their psychological makeup is
devoid of compunction, contrition, and remorse.
Quite frightening and alarming indeed!
Tigray
is now going to be a testing ground for both the
local mercenaries and their nurturing
grandmasters. It is abundantly clear that these
forces are working hand-in-glove, because the US
undersecretary for African affairs and the German
government officials, by way of condemning the
missile attacks by the TPLF, have shown their
solidarity to both Abiy and Isaias. The question,
however, remains: Why can�t the US and Germany
condemn the bombardment of Tigray in the same
fashion? Why is the West silent on the aerial
bombardment of Tigray? How about the UN Security
Council? What inhibits the Security Council from
not taking its obligation and send an observatory
mission, if not a UN peacekeeping force to
Ethiopia?
Now,
to another important and relevant question: Have
the mercenaries singled out Tigray in their war
mongering? Is their war on Tigray an isolated
incident? There is no doubt that the mercenaries
have been strategizing to encircle and attack
Tigray, but more so their objective was to destroy
the TPLF. Why have Abiy and Isaias conspired
against the TPLF and why have they viewed the
Tigrayan political organization as their common
enemy and/or nemesis, when in fact the TPLF
rescued Isaias from his demise during the Red Star
Campaign of the Derg, and brought Abiy to power in
2018? Some observers entertain the idea that the
TPLF/EPRDF routed the Isaias forces during the
heyday of the Badme war (1998-2000) and now Isaias
is retaliating; and Abiy, on the other hand, has
resorted to vindictiveness because the TPLF
refused to join the Prosperity Party, challenged
him for not observing the constitutional order,
and for postponing the election. Moreover, the
TPLF conducted its own election, and all these
decisive measures of the Tigrayan organization
were frustrating and offensive to Abiy.
All
of the above points have grain of truth, but they
are superficial in terms of capturing the
complexity and nuances surrounding the mission and
objectives of the powers that be in the Horn of
Africa. Therefore, a more in-depth analysis is
sine qua non to fathoming the essence of Abiy-Isaias
war on Tigray.
There
is no doubt that the TPLF and/or Tigray have
become nightmarish to the Abiy-Isaias scarified
and scared alliance, and the West in general and
the grandmasters in particular have had
reservations on the TPLF/EPRDF when it marshalled
an independent foreign policy that favorably
encouraged Chinese investors to come en masse to
Ethiopia. The TPLF/EPRDF, at one point, was also
viewed by the grandmasters, particularly the
United States, as the best ally in the fight
against terrorism, but since it did not follow the
neo-liberal economic policy through to the end,
and also did not become a lackey tout court, it
was reviewed as an enemy in the final analysis.
But the Western perception of the EPRDF
development perspective was wrong; the EPRDF
actually adopted what is known as mixed economy,
state-managed enterprises and private-owned market
economy
However,
even the above rational analysis is not going to
be adequate enough if we perceive the present
conflict as a war between Abiy and Tigray only,
and here is why: Abiy is not just the enemy of
Tigray only; he is actually the enemy of the
Ethiopian people, and more specifically of the
federal forces who want to realize
self-determination that was already granted to
them by the 1995 constitution. The federalist
forces also demand basic democratic rights, but
their highest priority is the progress of Ethiopia
led by a patriotic and committed government, not a
wishy-washy leadership that prioritize foreign
interest at the expense of Ethiopian interest. In
this context, �foreign interest� implies to
Eritrea and Araba countries.
From
day one when he came to power, Abiy has been doing
his homework to dismantling the constitution and
thereby enjoying endorsements from opportunist
rubber stamp members of parliament (MPs), whose
term of office has expired and no longer represent
the Ethiopian people. Additionally, the present
Ethiopian parliament does not reflect the
diversity of Ethiopia anymore because the
twenty-nine MPs from Tigray have withdrawn from
the legislature and have left behind acquiescent
and opportunist MPs.
But
the most egregious crime that has been committed
by the present regime is the indifference and
silence it exhibited when the Ethiopian people
were internally displaced and attacked by
�unknown gunmen�; these �unknown� armed
forces wantonly destroyed the property of
peasants, farmers, and herdsmen in the rural
areas, and in some instances terrorize residents
in urban areas.
The
Abiy agenda of deliberately turning Ethiopia into
a chaotic �state of nature� ala Thomas Hobbes,
actually is a window dressing and long thought out
preparation against war that he has now declared
on Tigray, but he made a huge mistake; he
miscalculated. Why have I said, Abiy has
miscalculated? Like many Ethiopians, I had high
hope when Abiy first assumed the premiership
because his voice was so sweet and full of
promises that could benefit Ethiopians and
Ethiopia; some elderly intellectuals like the late
Professor Mesfin Woldemariam have even entertained
the idea that �Abiy Ahmed and Yilma Megersa were
God�s messengers from heaven�; on my part,
though hopeful, I did not want to rush to judgment
and I convinced myself to give the new
leadership more time to prove itself to the
Ethiopian people. And couple of months after Abiy
assumed power, sometime in July 2018 he came to
the US to address Ethiopian community members, and
couple of days before his arrival to Washington
DC, I had an interview with the Tigray Media House
(TMH), and one of the questions forwarded to me
was �what is your advice to PM Abiy Ahmed?�
and my response was �in order to consolidate
power, PM Abiy should respect the constitution,
maintain the federal structure, and continue his
allegiance to
the EPRDF; otherwise his government may not enjoy
stability and endurance�. None of my advice
permeated into the corpus of the Abiy regime, and
although his government is now eroding from
beneath his very state apparatus, whether he is
going to falter and crumble remains to be seen.
But the man does not listen, let alone accept
advices; he rejected all peace mediation
initiatives from the UN, AU, and African leaders;
he even seems to ignore advices that come from
such astute diplomats like Herman Cohen, who
twitted recently and conveyed a message to him,
telling him on his face: �PM Abiy is fooling
himself if he believes his inexperienced army can
defeat the battle hardened TPLF even with Eritrean
support.�
As
of November 22, the war in Tigray (see maps below)
has intensified on the northern front and the
southern front; on the northern front, the
overwhelming fighting forces are those of the
Eritrean government forces, aiding the relatively
few forces of the Ethiopian Defense Forces (EDF);
on the southern front, the forces that are
fighting the TPLF special forces are local militia
and EDF, but they were apparently destroyed.
However, during these two days, the EDF that came
via Afar Regional State made gains in occupying
the town of Edaga Hamus, 97 kilometers from
Mekelle, and one colonel of these occupying forces
warned Mekelle residents that they must dissociate
themselves from the TPLF leadership, otherwise
they will be surrounded by tanks and heavy guns
and will pay the price�, a self-incriminating
war crime, as Susan Rice aptly put it in her
recent twit.
The
EDF may occupy Mekelle and the Government may
install its handpicked administrative staff, but
the war will continue and the TPLF and the people
of Tigray will resort to guerrilla warfare and an
all-out peoples� war (the militia in the Adigrat
area of Eastern Tigray has begun attacking EDF
forces as of November 23, 2020) and there is no
way the Abiy regime could pacify and stabilize
Tigray, let alone govern it. As I have already
stated above, Abiy has miscalculated, not only by
declaring war on Tigray but also by mobilizing all
EDF forces to the war front in northern Ethiopia,
leaving the rest of Ethiopia insecure. The latter
reality has now brought unforeseen bonus to the
Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) who were engaged in
fighting with Abiy forces; now they have occupied
most of western Oromia zone, known as Wellega.
Given
the above analysis of the reality on the ground,
it looks the Abiy government is heading toward a
vanishing point, but if he listens to the United
Arab Emirate new initiative in settling the
dispute peacefully by negotiating with the TPLF,
he could perhaps survive the ordeal. What I found
quite ironic, however, is the US silence with
respect to the atrocities being committed by the
joint forces of Eritrean troops and the so-called
EDF against the people of Tigray.
In
a recent Briefing (November 19, 2020) of Tibor
Nagy, the Assistant Secretary of African Affairs
and US Ambassador to Ethiopia, Michael A. Raynor,
to various media outlets, followed by a Q & A
session, I found many inconsistent and
contradictory statements in the Briefing
panelists. For instance, Secretary Nagy believes
that the TPLF missile attacks are unacceptable,
makes the situation more dangerous, but he did not
say a word in regards to the bombardment of Tigray
by the EDF and Eritrean forces. By the same token,
Ambassador Raynor, though he resides in Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia, he was unable or unwilling to
tell the truth about the Ethiopian peace and
security. This is what he said: ��the rest of
the country actually remains quite calm at
present, not indications of any one taking up
comparable actions elsewhere, and in fact the
opposite��. Unless the US embassy in Ethiopia
is suffering from intelligence deficiency, intense
fighting is going on between the OLF and the
Ethiopian Federal Police forces in western
Ethiopia, and the revived Qero (�youth� in
Afan Oromo) movement, now armed, has just attacked
a prison station in Shashmene and liberated the
political prisoners.
I
am of the opinion that the United States, without
siding with any party, should broker peace and
pressurize the Abiy government to declare truce
and come to a round table for negotiation.
America�s clout world-wide is not limited to the
elite; the grassroots is also aware of it, and the
US must utilize it before the war in Tigray
engulfs the entire Horn of Africa. In order to
realize peace and order in the region, thus, the
US government must endorse the initiative of
Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Senator Van
Hollen (D-Md.) joined by fourteen other senators,
including Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Chris Coons
(D-Del.), Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), Dick Durbin
(D-Ill.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.),
Ed Markey (D-Mass), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Ron Wyden
(D-Ore.), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Jackey Rosen (D-Nev.),
Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Jeff Markley (D-Ore.), Michael
Bennet (D-Colo.), and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).
Finally,
I am hoping that our president-elect, soon to
become the 46th president of the United
States, will take immediate action to quell the
situation in the Horn of Africa, and I have
confidence the war unleashed against Tigray will
be a priority agenda in his foreign policy with
respect to Africa, and the future assistant
secretary for Africa will urgently deal with the
conflict in Ethiopia. That will be the day!
Interestingly, while I was about to post this
article, at long last, The UN Security Council has
finally decided on 11/24/20 to have
video-conferencing with the leadership of the TPLF
in order to investigate the war in Tigray. I
personally have dispatched a letter to the
Security Council on November 9, 2020; the title of
the letter is �Bombardment of Tigray� and it
can be read in its entirety by clicking on this
link: www.Africanidea.org/Bombardment_of_Tigray.html
This Space is deliberately
left empty. Please view the two maps below and
read them in conjunction with the article above.
The
two maps provided below are furnished here to help
the reader locate Tigray and Ethiopia as a whole;
the Tigray map can help readers understand the
administrative zones of Tigray and heavy fighting
is going on four fronts between the TPLF and the
joint forces of Eritrean troops and EDF.
Map of the Regional States of
Ethiopia
There
is intense fighting going on between the OLF
forces and the Ethiopian Federal Police forces in
the Oromia Regional State, mostly in the western
part adjacent to Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambela;
there are also sporadic infighting in Benishangul-Gumuz
between the Benishangul and Amhara militia
Map of the Regional State of
Tigray
Intense wars were conducted
and are being conducted between the TPLF forces
and the EDF and Amhara Militia on the pink area of
Western Tigray (Tsegede) and the yellow area of
Southern Tigray (Alamata); the TPLF and Eritrean
forces confrontations took place on the northern
most of the pink area of western Tigray, green
area of Central Tigray, and the blue are of
Eastern Tigray
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